3 Big Things Today, March 21, 2023

1. Soybean, Grain Futures Little Changed Overnight

Soybean and grain futures were little changed in overnight trading as investors weigh the ongoing harvest in Brazil against decreased expectations for the crop in Argentina.

Brazilian producers are harvesting what's expected to be a record crop for the South American country, the world's largest exporter of the oilseeds.

More supply being brought to the market generally means lower prices. The cost of soybeans for export from Brazil last week dropped to near a 14-month low, according to S&P Global.

Prices for free-on-bard soybeans dropped below $550 a metric tons as the harvest progresses, the firm said.

Brazil is projected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to produce 153 million metric tons of soybeans this year. If realized, that would be up from 129.5 million tons last year.

In Argentina, meanwhile, estimates for the country's soybean crop keep getting smaller.

The Buenos Aires grain exchange last week lowered its outlook for the crop to 25 million metric tons from a previous outlook for 29 million tons.

USDA earlier this month forecast Argentina production at 33 million metric tons, down from the prior projection for 41 million metric tons. That would be down from 43.9 million tons a year earlier, the agency said.

Soybean futures for May delivery rose 1 cent to $14.87 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soybean meal was up $1.90 to $464.60 a short ton and soy oil lost 0.06 cents to 57.93 cents a pound.

Corn futures were up ¾ of a cent to $6.33¾ a bushel.

Wheat futures for May delivery lost 1¾ cents to $6.99 a bushel, while Kansas City futures rose 1¹⁄₂ cents to $8.31¼ a bushel.**

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2. Weekly Export Inspections of Beans, Corn, and Wheat Rise

Export inspections were higher across the board as assessments of beans, corn and wheat all improved, according to USDA.

Examinations of soybeans for overseas delivery rose to 716,618 metric tons from 633,367 tons the previous week, the agency said in a report.

That's also higher than the 556,642 metric tons inspected during the same week a year earlier.

Corn inspections last week were reported at 1.19 million metric tons, up from 1.02 million tons a week earlier, the government said. Still, that was down from the 1.5 million metric tons inspected during the same week last year.

Wheat inspections improved to 374,224 metric tons from 256,901 tons the previous week and 335,068 tons at the same point in 2022, USDA said.

Since the start of the marketing year on Sept. 1, USDA has inspected 44.1 million metric tons of soybeans for export. That's up from the 42.8 million tons assessed during the same timeframe a year earlier, government data shows.

Corn inspections since the beginning of September now stand at 17.5 million metric tons, down from 27.4 million tons during the same period last year.

Wheat assessments since the start of the grain's marketing year on June 1 are now at 16.3 million metric tons, just behind the previous year's level of 16.6 million tons, USDA said in its report.

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3. Winter Weather Persists in Parts of the Northern U.S.

Winter will just not quit in the northern U.S. where weather warnings and advisories are advisories have been issued.

Winter storm warnings will take effect this afternoon in parts of northern North Dakota and Minnesota, the National Weather Service said in a report early this morning.

Heavy snow with accumulations of up to 7 inches is expected, the agency said. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are forecast for the area.

"Higher totals are supported, but are not expected to be widespread," the NWS said.

Winter weather advisories remain in effect in north-central Nebraska until 4 p.m. today as mixed precipitation is in the forecast, the NWS said.

Up to an inch of snow and a light glaze of ice are expected.