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Afternoon market recap: Soybeans face fractional cuts; wheat prices mixed but mostly higher.

Ben Potter, Senior editor

March 28, 2024

6 Min Read
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At a Glance

  • Corn prices find substantial gains, while soybeans ease slightly lower
  • Winter wheat prices capture gains ranging between 1.5% and 2.5%
  • Plus: Learn about the important numbers and analysis from today’s Prospective Plantings report!

Grain prices were mixed on Thursday, but a couple of commodities got a noticeable boost following USDA’s latest Prospective Plantings and quarterly stocks reports that were released late this morning. Corn prices climbed more than 3.5% higher after expected plantings were well below analyst estimates. Winter wheat prices also made solid inroads today. In contrast, spring wheat prices saw moderate reductions, while soybeans incurred fractional cuts.

The top third of the United States should see some additional rain showers between Friday and Monday, with some fields set to gather as much as 0.5” during this time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for most of the central U.S. between April 4 and April 10, with warmer-than-normal temperatures returning to the Midwest.

On Wall St., the Dow moved modestly higher after picking up 25 points in afternoon trading to 39,785 and is on pace for its best Q1 performance in three years with gains of around 5.6% since the start of 2024. Energy futures

On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT wheat (+1,500) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-4,000), soybeans (-2,000), soymeal (-2,000) and soyoil (-2,500).

NOTE: Grain markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday. We hope you have a long, happy Easter weekend, and be sure to come back to Farm Futures on Monday morning for our next round of agricultural news and market analysis.

Corn

Corn prices found considerable gains after USDA reported that it expects to see significantly less corn plantings that previously anticipated, which triggered an ample round of technical buying on Thursday. May futures rose 15.5 cents to $4.4225, with July futures up 15.25 cents to $4.5450.

Corn basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S. after trending as much as 3 cents higher at an Iowa ethanol plant and as much as 2 cents lower at an Iowa river terminal on Thursday.

In today’s Prospective Plantings report, USDA estimates that 2024 corn plantings will reach 90.025 million acres. That’s a 4-million-acre-plus drop compared to 2023’s footprint of 94.641 million acres. It was also noticeably lower than the average trade guess of 91.776 million acres and below the agency’s estimate of 91.000 acres offered at its Agricultural Outlook Forum in February.

Corn ending stocks moved from 7,396,403 bushels through March 1, 2023, up to 8,347,255 bushels through March 1, 2024. That was slightly below the average trade estimate of 8.427,000 bushels. Of the total, 5.079 million bushels were stored on farm, with the remaining 3.268 million bushels stored off farm.

Corn exports found 52.5 million bushels in combined old and new crop sales last week. Old crop sales were 4% better than the prior four-week average. Total sales were on the high end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 31.5 million and 57.1 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2023/24 marketing year are still moderately ahead of last year’s pace so far, with 999.1 million bushels.

Corn export shipments eased 4% below the prior four-week average, with 48.6 million bushels. Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Colombia and Guatemala were the top five destinations.

South Korea purchased 5.3 million bushels of animal feed corn from South America or South Africa in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment starting in late April.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 710,186 contracts, more than doubling Wednesday’s final count of 301,967.

Soybeans

Soybean prices tested modest gains at times on Thursday but ultimately slid slightly into the red after a choppy session today. May futures eased half a penny lower to $11.92, with July futures down 0.75 cents to $12.0575.

The rest of the soy complex was mixed. July soymeal futures faded 0.5% lower, while July soyoil futures trended almost 1% higher.

Soybean basis bids held steady across the central U.S. on Thursday.

USDA is expecting 2024 plantings to reach 96.410 million acres. That’s nearly 3 million acres more than 2023’s final tally and very close to the average trade guess of 86.530 million acres. It was also almost 1 million acres lower than the agency’s estimate of 87.500 million acres offered at its Agricultural Outlook Forum in February.

Soybean ending stocks also increased year-over-year, moving from 1,686,632 bushels through March 1, 2023, up to 1,845,079 bushels through March 1, 2024. That was also slightly higher than the average trade guess of 1,828,000 bushels. Of the total, 933,000 bushels were stored on farm, with the remaining 912,079 bushels stored off farm.

Soybean exports only saw 14.1 million bushels in combined old and new crop sales last week. Old crop sales faded 26% below the prior four-week average. Total sales were on the lower end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 11.0 million and 27.6 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2023/24 marketing year are still moderately lower than last year’s pace, with 1.331 billion bushels.

Soybean export shipments inched 2% higher week-over-week but were still 22% below the prior four-week average, with 28.9 million bushels. China, Mexico, Japan, Germany and Indonesia were the top five destinations.

Ahead of a monthly USDA report that will be released next Monday, analysts expect the agency to show February’s soybean crush totaling 196.4 million bushels. If realized, that would be 0.8% above January’s volume and 11.0% higher year-over-year. It would also be the largest monthly volume on record. Analysts also expect USDA to show soyoil stocks at 2.244 billion pounds through February 29, which would be a year-over-year decrease of 5.1%.

Brazil’s Agroconsult is one of the few entities that have raised their projection for the country’s 2023/24 soybean production after offering a new estimate of 5.750 billion bushels. That’s an increase of 2.8% from its estimate in January when Agroconsult conducted a countrywide crop tour.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 328,431 contracts, which was noticeably higher than Wednesday’s final tally of 192,135.

Wheat

Wheat prices were mixed but mostly higher after traders assessed the latest planting and stocks data from USDA. May Chicago SRW futures climbed 14 cents higher to $5.6150, May Kansas City HRW futures gained 8.75 cents to $5.87, and May MGEX spring wheat futures dropped 4.5 cents to $6.4650.

USDA thinks all-wheat plantings will reach 47.498 million acres for the 2023/24 season. That’s more than 2 million acres lower than the prior season’s footprint of 49.575 million acres and slightly above the average analyst estimate of 47.330 million acres. It’s also nearly half a million acres above the agency’s estimate made at its Agricultural Outlook Forum in February.

All-wheat ending stocks increased from 941,218 bushels a year ago up to 1,087,449 bushels through March 1, 2024. That was a bit above the average analyst estimate of 1,044,000 bushels. Of the total, 271,930 bushels were stored on farm, with the remaining 815,519 bushels stored off farm.

Wheat exports gathered 20.3 million bushels in combined old and new crop sales last week. That bested the entire range of analyst estimates, which ranged between net reductions of 1.8 million bushels and net sales of 20.2 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2023/24 marketing year are still modestly lower than last year’s pace so far, with 515.1 million bushels.

Wheat export shipments slid 7% below the prior four-week average, with 15.0 million bushels. China, Mexico, Bangladesh, the Dominican Republic and South Korea were the top five destinations.

The European Commission expects EU 2024/25 soft wheat production to increase around 4% year-over-year to 4.615 billion bushels. EU wheat exports are expected to remain relatively steady in the upcoming marketing year, with 1.139 billion bushels.

Saudi Arabia issued a tender to purchase 21.9 million bushels of wheat from optional origins that closes on Friday. The grain is for arrival in June and July.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 153,814 CBOT contracts, nearly doubling Wednesday’s volume of 80,536.

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About the Author(s)

Ben Potter

Senior editor, Farm Futures

Senior Editor Ben Potter brings two decades of professional agricultural communications and journalism experience to Farm Futures. He began working in the industry in the highly specific world of southern row crop production. Since that time, he has expanded his knowledge to cover a broad range of topics relevant to agriculture, including agronomy, machinery, technology, business, marketing, politics and weather. He has won several writing awards from the American Agricultural Editors Association, most recently on two features about drones and farmers who operate distilleries as a side business. Ben is a graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism.

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