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The pledges of the coups have not been kept, beginning with the security danger, which the putschists waved like a scarecrow to explain the ousting of elected heads of state, poorly elected but elected nonetheless. One foreign partner – Russia – substituted another – France – without anything changing in Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali. And the thunderous statement of the birth of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) did not change one iota the destiny of the populations, frequently bereaved by the jihadists. Whatever Russia states, if its troops are in Africa it is mainly to guarantee the powers in place – and the interests of Moscow – who are afraid of the populations. All the putschists in the world live in this moral discomfort, this endless fear of suffering the fate that we have imposed on others. On the other hand, on the economic level there are movements in the Sahel, but not necessarily in the direction that we expected.
Mali sets the example, the bad one
The economic menace was one of the grievances formulated by the military to justify the shutdown of the institutional order. But years later have the putschists succeeded where the deposed presidents had supposedly failed? Nothing is less sure. The least we can say is that the situation is mixed and there are disparities between the members of the AES. Three coups d’état, three different destinies…
First, the one that opened the catastrophic ball of putsches in West Africa: Mali. Nothing has altered under the sun, apart from the growing tension of Colonel Assimi Goïta around the end of the Transition, the deadline for which has passed. The junta has stepped up its game by gagging the youth and freezing all political activity so that no one speaks about a return to constitutional order, elections and the return of power to civilians. For the rest, the colonel does like the power he dismissed: he knocks on the door of the IMF to give his population something to eat. This is not what he swore.
The same goes for Niger, which also aims the means of its subsistence elsewhere. It may not be dealing with the IMF – not yet – but Niamey too has had to scale back its ambitions. After having officially divorced from ECOWAS, one could anticipate him to shun the regional market where the country financed itself. The Nigerien junta closed the door for a moment then reopened it by recently issuing bonds on the UMOA Securities market: $747 million gathered from donors. The same path taken by the deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum.
Captain Traoré runs his boat extremely well
Burkina Faso is the only one not to have solicited foreign aid, apart from that of investors. Ouagadougou wanted to venture into the regional market from January 2024, to increase 35 billion FCFA, but froze the project for fear of disappointment following rumors regarding the exit of the CFA Franc. So the President of the Transition, Captain Ibrahima Traoré, depended on the country’s resources and he is doing very well so far…
Customs raked in 262.22 billion FCFA ($427 million) in revenue in the first quarter of 2024, the Burkina Information Agency reported on April 29. This is a phenomenal recovery rate of 100.38%, compared to the 261.22 billion FCFA initially programmed. And then there are the good forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to him, the country’s economic outlook remains positive, particularly after the reforms undertaken by the Transition.
Among these reforms there are strong decisions to reinforce local industry and ensure that it processes raw materials on site; there is also the revision of the Mining Code to increase the country’s share in partnerships with foreigners. With all this, Burkina Faso is putting itself into orbit to set itself in 2024 as the 4th economy in the CFA zone, with a GDP (gross domestic product) of 21.9 billion dollars (at current prices) compared to 20.3 billion dollars in 2023.
Similarly, the General Directorate of Customs of Burkina Faso expects 1,106.2 billion FCFA (1.8 billion dollars) in revenue for the 2024 budget year, an increase of 10.62% compared to the previous year. Added to a much more peaceful social and political climate than in the neighbourhood. In Burkina, we do not bother the junta so that it cedes power to civilians. So things are going well for Captain Traoré… for the moment.
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